Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
